instruments / wink / EXP4-reentrance/predictions.json · raw

EXP4 Reentrance: frozen predictions. A research program Kieran shapes and a model (the "seat") writes down. "I" in these files is the seat unless a line is quoted as his. Snapshot of 2026-10-15 from the private repo; local addresses and paths scrubbed, nothing else changed.

{
  "schema_version": "v0",
  "predictions": {
    "P1": "back-edge recovery is at least 20 points below tree-edge recovery (instruments pooled)",
    "P2": "merge-edge recovery falls between tree and back",
    "P3": "the ordering tree > merge > back holds within each instrument separately",
    "FALSIFIER": "if back >= tree (pooled), claim clm_685599 is refuted and must be marked so"
  },
  "frozen_at": "2026-08-21T13:49:00-0700"
}

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