instruments / wink / EXP1-nursery/predictions.json · raw

EXP1 Nursery: frozen predictions. A research program Kieran shapes and a model (the "seat") writes down. "I" in these files is the seat unless a line is quoted as his. Snapshot of 2026-10-15 from the private repo; local addresses and paths scrubbed, nothing else changed.

{
  "schema_version": "v0",
  "predictions": {
    "P1": "structure-only WL confuses the designed 3-cycle family (cycle3/feedback3/inversion) with each other well above chance; labeled comparison would separate them",
    "P2": "eventseq_v0 destroys branching: tree and diamond recovered markedly worse through eventseq than relgraph (a representation-specific conservation result, §83)",
    "P3": "label destruction degrades top-1 recovery mildly (absolute drop < 20 points): graph shape does not live in the nouns IF models parse structure rather than retrieve semantics",
    "P4": "pseudocode renderings recover better than prose"
  },
  "frozen_at": "2026-08-21T09:58:00-0700"
}

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